Article

Received 05.02.2026

Revised 21.05.2026

Accepted 25.06.2026

Published 04.07.2026

Retrieved from Vol. 29, No. 1, 2026

Pages 9 -27

Salayev, E. (2026). Public transport risk assessment through fault tree analysi̇s (Baku ci̇ty example). Transport Systems and Technologies, 29(1), 9-27. https://doi.org/10.32703/2617-9040-2026-47-1

Public transport risk assessment through fault tree analysi̇s (Baku ci̇ty example)

Elmaddin Salayev*

elmeddin.salayev@aztu.edu.az

Road safety has become an increasingly important issue within urban transportation systems, particularly in developing nations such as Azerbaijan, where traffic accidents continue to be a primary source of injuries and property damage. This purpose of the study was to assess the risks linked to Baku’s public transportation network by employing Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) within the Haddon Matrix framework, which organises contributing factors into three categories: vehicle, human, and road environment. The FTA approach facilitated a systematic, deductive examination of potential failure causes that could lead to accidents involving public transport. Significant findings revealed that vehicle-related problems, including malfunctioning braking systems, steering issues, and inadequate maintenance, greatly increase the likelihood of incidents. Human-related risks such as driver behaviour (for instance, speeding and failure to yield), non-compliance with traffic regulations, and unpredictable pedestrian actions also significantly contribute to the problem. Additionally, road-related issues like poor infrastructure, lack of adequate signage, insufficient lighting, and unsafe bus stop designs further heighten the risk. The interplay of these factors indicates that public transport accidents in Baku are multi-faceted and frequently preventable. This study underscored the necessity of systematic safety evaluations, routine vehicle inspections, and improved public awareness initiatives to reduce risks associated with urban transport. The practical implications of this research provide urban transport planners and policymakers with insights into priority risk areas, thereby facilitating more effective strategies to enhance safety within Baku’s transit system

urban traffic accidents; vehicle; risk analysis; road safety; bus operation risks
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https://doi.org/10.32703/2617-9040-2026-47-1